In the Trough of Disillusionment

The tech community is in a terrible state. How do we get out of the slump?

Most of you probably know the Gartner Hype Cycle. Right now, it’s a bit out of fashion. But back in the 90s and 00s, it was a fun and slightly ironic way to talk about the progression of technology. The basic idea behind the Hype Cycle is that all technologies move through different stages. Each stage describes how a specific technology is assessed and perceived by the tech community. After the initial ‘Trigger’, technologies move through a ‘Peak of Inflated Expectations’, a ‘Trough of Disillusionment’, climb up the ‘Slope of Enlightenment’ until they finally reach the ‘Plateau of Productivity’.

The Hype Cycle is a simple model, and it should not be taken too seriously as it’s not backed by data or any scientific method. It allows you to make assumptions about the future — although most of the time these are fairly inaccurate or completely wrong. But it is kind of fun to follow the yearly progression — and sometimes sudden disappearance — of technologies.

While the Gartner Hype Cycle is not a reliable and trustworthy model for the advancement of technology, it offers an interesting way to talk about the overall tech community. Instead of focusing on a specific product category, we can ask where digital technology in its entirety is located on the curve. And it does not look good.

In my view, the entire tech community is collectively in the Trough of Disillusionment. Everyone and everything.

The fact that we are in a deep depression is indisputable. We had terrible data scandals. Social media is addictive and yet full of hate speech and unpleasantness. Troll farms influence democratic elections. Bitcoin scamming. Crypto is crashing. Twitter is wrecked by incompetence and narcissism. Theranos was a fraud. Meta and Google are just advertising companies that have not created a single interesting product in years. Complete lack of innovation and corporate responsibility. Mobile phones rely on rare metals that are mined under inhumane conditions. Silicon Valley is run by white, straight cis men — racism and misogyny are rampant. Exploitation of the form of gig economy. App pricing is broken. The open software community is full of abuse and oppression. Even the Metaverse is nothing but a bland and depressing simulation of reality. Tech is no longer fun.

I don’t want to sound too negative — but the current state is bleak. Digital technology is no longer a force for good. Do you remember the ‘One Laptop per Child’ initiative? We now have one smartphone per child — and we are desperately trying to separate them. Utopia is having less technology in our lives.

Design is deeply linked to the rise and fall of digital technology. (In this case it does not matter if you are calling it interface, interaction, or UX design.)

It is design that turns digital technology into a product. Users interact with interfaces, not with code. The ‘machine’ does not define the form. The appearance of software must be invented — it cannot be derived from the underlying technology. The fact that billions of people can effortlessly use the most complex technology ever invented is a triumph of design.

But design plays also a role in the downfall. Obvious examples are dark UX patterns. But also conventional design is stagnating. Uninspiring, predictable and repetitive design is the current industry standard. Design Thinking is an elaborate kind of groupthink and just iterates exhausted ideas. Design methods stifle creativity and are just a way to delegate responsibility. UX is profit maximisation in the guise of usability.

To get back to the Gartner Hype Cycle: after a long Peak of Inflated Expectations, we are now deeply in the Trough of Disillusionment. The whole industry is in an ethical, conceptual, intellectual, technical, and aesthetic slump. Technology has become meaningless. If it’s not doing good, we really don’t know why we are doing it anymore.

One could argue that this is a very negative assessment, and that technology at least had some positive effects. In a way, this is true. Despite all disasters and catastrophes — things are getting better. And digital technology certainly had a certain positive impact on this development.

But this essay is not about the state of our world. This essay is about hubris.

Big tech always claimed to be about more than just making money. All this talk about ‘disruption’, ‘moving fast and breaking things’, ‘making a dent in the universe’. Digital technology was an attempt to revolutionise everything — education, politics, society, science, travel, health — you name it. Turns out, ‘making the world a better place’ is just a fancy way of selling ads. Hypocrisy instead of high aspirations. The great promises and expectations are void.

Ironically, the primary sin of this development is the lack of good business models. Silicon valley does not sell innovative products — they are selling advertisements.

Deeply rooted in the hippy counter-culture, Silicon Valley was initially anti-authoritarian and anti-capitalist. As Jaron Lanier notes in ‘Ten Arguments For Deleting Your Social Media Accounts Right Now’:

‘[It] was in part an unintended consequence of an intense, almost religious movement to promote free and open software in the decade before the internet coalesced. Ironically social and political pressure from techie hippies is what drove entrepreneurs to focus almost exclusively on ad-based business models when the internet happened.’

Instead of offering competing products and services, the biggest digital tech companies make their money with surveillance and advertising. So instead of cultivating counter-culture, big tech turned into a cultural void.

As a side note: it has always intrigued me that in the 21st century, digital art is not a thriving genre. This is not the fault of digital / computational artists — many of them are doing excellent and fascinating work! But compared with the ubiquity of digital technology in our society, digital technology had very little impact on artistic practice and — more importantly — the art market. (Don’t get me started on NFTs!)

I believe one of the reasons for this is that digital entrepreneurs never much cared for art and culture. Silicon Valley is more obsessed with Star Wars than Strawinsky. Generic AI images seem to be more important than the exceptional works of Ai Weiwei. The trailblazers have no taste.

The lack of culture is certainly not the only fault of Silicon Valley. And I don’t think that greater cultural awareness would have necessarily saved us from the falling into the Trough of Disillusionment. But it is linked to a lack of vision. Exactly how do you want to make the world a better place? Throughout the ages, art has always been a reference point to this question. From idolising beauty to critical and brutal displays of social injustice, art was always a guide and a reflection of human endeavour. And today, art is suspiciously absent from the digital domain.

This cultural emptiness has permeated all things digital. From the ugliness of the early PCs to the uninspired and meaningless design of today’s software. Usability has just become a way to suppress individuality and creativity. Methods, metrics, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness dominate the design process — and not for the benefit of the user but for the benefit of the company. (Which — this should be pointed out — is not necessarily a contradiction! But it has turned out this way.)

So where does all this leave us? Should we all stop designing for technology? Turn into luddites? Or just focus on speculative design?

Design has always had a complicated relationship with industry. On the one hand side, it was (and is) a facilitator of capitalism — things are designed to be used and consumed. On the other hand, design was also repeatedly on the vanguard of social and political change. Many designers reject the notion that design equals consumerism. Out of opposition to the technology-centredness of the engineers, design could always claim to be on the side of the user. So we were the good guys. Or so we thought.

How do we get out of the Trough of Disillusionment? I cannot answer for the entire tech community — only for design. And I don’t have a plan or a systematic approach to this question. Right now, I can only offer vague, inadequate, and unfinished thoughts and ideas.

Optimism

Probably the best way out of the Trough of Disillusionment is this: we need to re-discover optimism. Not a naive and gullible kind of optimism but a defiant and sceptical optimism. I am convinced that design is fundamentally optimistic. (As a designer, if you are not an optimist, you are a cynic.)

So ask yourself: how do you want the future to be? How will we live with the technology of the future? What is a desirable future and how can we design for it?

Integrity

What do you stand for? What are your values? And how can they be translated into designs? Are you strict and uncompromising regarding your values? Or flexible and adaptable? Where do you draw a line?

Designs should have an internal consistency in terms of concepts, aesthetics, and values. This consistency will only be achieved if you — as a designer — believe in these principles.

Creativity

We all became designers because we wanted to channel our creativity. We wanted to make something that is new, exciting, interesting, playful, challenging, and beautiful. We wanted to create valuable things that support reason, extend knowledge, increase tolerance. Trust your own ideas and values. We need to cultivate an intrinsic motivation for shaping things.

Embrace Contradictions

Design has always been full of contradictions. As designers, we are constantly dealing with contradicting demands, concepts, and ideas. In a way, design is the art of the compromise. However, right now, we are not only facing professional contradictions but also personal ones.

We must accept that not everything can be resolved. Sometimes we just have to endure and embrace contradictions.

Look Beyond Design

Appreciate art. It cannot and should not be directly transferred to design problems. But art is a source of inspiration and an important frame of reference.

History

Appreciate history. We need a greater awareness of the history of technology and design. Not only because it is good to have a thorough education — but also because we can actually learn things from the past. Some ideas failed for good reason. Others might work in the future.

Connect big and small

Treat Wicked Problems as design problems and design problems as Wicked Problems. Both statements are equally thought-provoking.

Digital technology will play a major role in addressing the great societal challenges of the 21st century. In order to work well, it needs to be designed well. We need design to take on Wicked Problems.

Conversely, if you apply the ten characteristics of Wicked Problems to seemingly simple design assignments, you will create surprising results and discover hidden complexities.

While addressing enormous problems, think small. Path — a now defunct social network — initially limited each user’s social network to 50 friends. That is even less than Dunbar’s Number. Focus on small groups, clear tasks, simple ideas.

As mentioned above, this list is vague and incomplete. But it is a starting point. I am sure that in the next few months and years, we will figure out a way to move forward.

According to the Gartner Hype Cycle, the ‘Trough of Disillusionment’ will be followed by the ‘Slope of Enlightenment’ and finally the ‘Plateau of Productivity’.

Personally, I find it ironic that Productivity comes after Enlightenment. But such is the world today. And after all — the Gartner Hype Cycle is a bit silly.

Nonetheless, I think we need to re-evaluate the relationship of digital technology and design. Digital technology will not disappear. And I believe that we — as professional designers — will continue to make valuable contributions to the societal and technological progress.